{ "model_version": "annual-plan-decade-acceleration-v3", "year": 2026, "scope": "Rb-Z E: roczny wskaźnik szacunkowego przyrostu netto dodawany do ostatniego salda urzędowego", "annual_inputs": { "planned_borrowing_pln": "150000000.00", "planned_principal_repayments_pln": "82417592.00", "annual_plan_net_pln": "67582408.00", "annual_trend_adjustment_pln": "11577779.11593939393939393939", "adjustment_years": "1", "annual_growth_pln": "79160187.11593939393939393939", "seconds_in_year": "31536000", "rate_pln_per_second": "2.510153066842319696200974740", "plan_version": "2026-10-01", "source_url": "https://bip.czestochowa.pl/attachments/download/136346" }, "decade_trend": { "forecast_year": 2026, "balance_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "annual_changes": [ { "year": 2016, "change_pln": "11845.78", "source_urls": [ "https://mf-arch2.mf.gov.pl/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=f3c52ee3-81bb-4a8f-b45a-c69c356847cc&groupId=764034", "https://mf-arch2.mf.gov.pl/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=def7eaa7-a63a-4a6a-86d0-22fb7345d667&groupId=764034" ] }, { "year": 2017, "change_pln": "10423225.58", "source_urls": [ "https://mf-arch2.mf.gov.pl/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=def7eaa7-a63a-4a6a-86d0-22fb7345d667&groupId=764034", "https://mf-arch2.mf.gov.pl/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=d15cad4e-6303-404a-86ec-0802d9886c05&groupId=764034" ] }, { "year": 2018, "change_pln": "35323934.13", "source_urls": [ "https://mf-arch2.mf.gov.pl/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=d15cad4e-6303-404a-86ec-0802d9886c05&groupId=764034", "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/2086813a-1dcd-4127-aa98-c302a475f887" ] }, { "year": 2019, "change_pln": "55068415.46", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/2086813a-1dcd-4127-aa98-c302a475f887", "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/fed44c9a-9e86-4693-aef9-136dddb08d24" ] }, { "year": 2020, "change_pln": "67922819.20", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/fed44c9a-9e86-4693-aef9-136dddb08d24", "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/7b55c935-d594-4a2d-8220-e518d4735deb" ] }, { "year": 2021, "change_pln": "-10967505.93", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/7b55c935-d594-4a2d-8220-e518d4735deb", "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/59c58ce0-9331-4b2f-bf6a-51069896f492" ] }, { "year": 2022, "change_pln": "43890100.53", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/59c58ce0-9331-4b2f-bf6a-51069896f492", "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/79ca77c3-3050-4101-b2ea-d9cd91f14b99" ] }, { "year": 2023, "change_pln": "275484165.75", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/79ca77c3-3050-4101-b2ea-d9cd91f14b99", "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/b388c695-3bcb-4943-a49e-880e65a88920" ] }, { "year": 2024, "change_pln": "35714243.39", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/b388c695-3bcb-4943-a49e-880e65a88920", "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/1ad7979c-8b1b-4026-8208-7764e42da3a1" ] }, { "year": 2025, "change_pln": "71669683.70", "source_urls": [ "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/1ad7979c-8b1b-4026-8208-7764e42da3a1", "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/7ed5e4aa-50a5-46f7-a32e-337675319a8b" ] } ], "mean_year": "2020.5", "mean_annual_change_pln": "58454092.759", "slope_pln_per_year_squared": "11577779.11593939393939393939", "ols_numerator": "955166777.0650", "ols_denominator": "82.50", "normalization": "Dziesięć rocznych przyrostów, równa waga każdego roku; OLS na wycentrowanych latach." }, "current_estimate": { "as_of": "2026-10-11T00:00:00+02:00", "anchor_as_of": "2026-06-30", "anchor_timestamp": "2026-06-30T22:00:00+00:00", "anchor_pln": "995199272.94", "source_url": "https://www.gov.pl/attachment/71e51c67-5dc9-404e-9dc0-bc90c8e19519", "value_pln": "1017320749.89", "change_since_anchor_pln": "22121476.95", "elapsed_seconds": "8812800", "rate_pln_per_second": "2.510153066842319696200974740", "budget_only_value_pln": "1014085315.72", "trend_contribution_since_anchor_pln": "3235434.16" }, "horizon_end": "2027-01-01T00:00:00+01:00", "schedule": [ { "at": "2026-07-01", "value_pln": "995199272.94", "status": "estimated" }, { "at": "2026-08-01", "value_pln": "1001922466.91", "status": "estimated" }, { "at": "2026-09-01", "value_pln": "1008645660.89", "status": "estimated" }, { "at": "2026-10-01", "value_pln": "1015151977.64", "status": "estimated" }, { "at": "2026-10-11", "value_pln": "1017320749.89", "status": "estimated" }, { "at": "2026-11-01", "value_pln": "1021884208.16", "status": "estimated" }, { "at": "2026-12-01", "value_pln": "1028390524.91", "status": "estimated" }, { "at": "2027-01-01", "value_pln": "1035113718.89", "status": "frozen" } ], "year_end_comparison": { "annual_counter_pln": "1035113718.89", "official_wpf_debt_target_pln": "1103959232.00", "wpf_plus_last_overdue_proxy_pln": "1103990476.34", "difference_to_wpf_proxy_pln": "-68876757.45", "note": "Roczny wskaźnik jest dodawany od daty aktualnego salda; nie dopasowuje tempa do pozostałego okresu ani do celu WPF." }, "assumptions": [ "Jedna stawka roczna; brak sezonowości lub zmiany na przełomie kwartałów", "Korekta trendu: historyczne przyspieszenie razy jeden rok", "Plan na 2026 jest bazą; dodanie korekty trendu jest jawnym wyborem scenariusza i może nakładać się na oczekiwania uwzględnione już w planie", "Cała dekada zachowana, bez usuwania 2023; OLS jest wrażliwy na nietypowe lata", "Nowy odczyt urzędowy zastępuje bazę i zeruje przyrost liczony od bazy" ], "validation": { "state": "calculation_verified_forecast_not_backtested", "note": "Weryfikacja rachunku i semantyki czasu, nie potwierdzenie trafności prognozy. Dostępna dekada umożliwia profil 2026, ale nie test wcześniejszych lat na pełnych poprzednich dekadach. Wynik 52,60% z v2 nie dotyczy v3." } }